Ranked convictions
Conviction Board
The standing calls, ranked by score and grouped by horizon. This is the publish gate's whitelisted view — no score internals, no source references, no price levels beyond each call's own invalidation line. What you don't see is the point.
16shown
1 withheld · private-only sourcing
5 citations withheld · private source
board built2026-07-20
Action reads direction / size. Direction is what the
call says to do — buy (add), hold (keep as-is), trim
(reduce), exit (close out), avoid (stay out). Size is the
position weight — small, medium or large; a watch-only
call with nothing to size shows the direction alone.
Score is a 0–100 evidence-strength rank.
▲/▼ mark
its move vs last week's board; · is flat,
no mark means a new or under-a-week-old call.
Trade
weeks| Coin | Action | Score | Conf. | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | buy / small | 52▼ | med | BTC in $61,800-$67,255 purgatory, tilting bullish on a new 60-day cycle count; needs ~1 week of sustained strength above range to confirm. Invalidation · Sustained close below the $61,800 purgatory floor toward the ~$60K February low negates the bullish new-cycle tilt. CCDCCBL |
| HYPE | trim / small | 20▼ | low | HYPE sits at its $60 sell-signal trigger with weak (20/100) evidence - trim toward the $57 stop rather than hold full size. Invalidation · Weekly close back above $70 reclaims the CC Algo buy signal and negates the near-term trim case. CCDCC |
| SOL | trim / small | 16▼ | low | SOL fighting a weekly sell setup: below $72 confirms breakdown, above $85 sustained cancels it. Weak evidence + DCC conflict - trim. Invalidation · Voided by a sustained weekly close above $85 for ~2 weeks (CC's cooking signal), confirming trend reclaim. CCDCC |
| VVV | buy | 12 | low | VVV is a dip-watch, not a buy at $11.33: wait for the $8.50-10 zone ($9.50 ideal) before adding any size. Invalidation · A break below the $8.50 zone floor without holding invalidates the dip-buy plan and reopens the path toward the old $6 level. CCDCC |
| AERO | trim / small | 9 | low | AERO testing 12-wk MA near $0.45 after mainnet slip to Sept; next leg likely tests the $0.41-0.42 20-wk MA. Invalidation · Reclaim and weekly close back above ~$0.46 (12-week MA test zone) invalidates the near-term breakdown call. CCDCC |
Position
months| Coin | Action | Score | Conf. | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | hold / medium | 97▲ | high | Position bullish: $4,800 cycle test, treasury-adoption thesis, CC buy signal; BC's near-term Aug-Oct dip doesn't break the 8/10 long-term case. Invalidation · ETH fails to break its prior cycle ATH or the treasury-company accumulation thesis reverses; position support break below ~$1,400. DCCCC |
| BTC | buy / small | 97▲ | med | BTC holds $61.8K-$67.3K purgatory; CC leans bullish new-cycle, BL's model bought first time in 3.5yrs, but DCC/BC flag downside risk. Invalidation · Break below $61,042 (CC's buy-signal cluster floor) confirms the bearish branch and opens the path toward DCC's ~$52K double-bottom target. CCBLDCC |
| AERO | buy / small | 96· | med | Months-scoped buy-the-dip: Coinbase-backed ETH L1 migration (now Sept) still the catalyst; accumulate on a weekly close below $0.41 (20-wk MA). Invalidation · Weekly close back below $0.45 (support flips to rejected sell-signal), further mainnet slip past Sept, or BTC breaking its $48K July-low structure. CCDCC |
| ZEC | buy / small | 90▲ | med | ZEC buy setup above $462 (now $549), 12-wk persistence high, but July 28 Hardwood/Ironwood shielded-pool audit is a binary near-term catalyst. Invalidation · July 28 shielded-pool audit finds minted/counterfeit tokens, or ZEC breaks below $462 toward the $200 core invalidation (CC's $204 box low). CCDCC |
| SOL | hold / medium | 85▲ | med | Core BTC/ETH/SOL cycle hold; needs green weekly closes + sustained >$85 to confirm strength, stays bullish while >$72. Invalidation · Weekly close back below $72 loses the buy signal and flips bias bearish; failure to clear/hold $85 leaves the thesis unconfirmed. DCCCC |
Hold
full cycle| Coin | Action | Score | Conf. | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | hold / medium | 88▲ | high | Own ETH across cycles for #2-asset status + treasury/Wall-Street adoption; near-term chop doesn't change the thesis. Invalidation · ETH fails a new ATH this cycle, treasury-company accumulation reverses, or ETH visibly loses the #2 spot to a rival L1. DCCCC |
| BTC | hold / medium | 84· | med | Hold BTC across cycles: near-term chop ($61.8K-$67.3K) but 8/10 long-term score; BL's 4Y-cycle-bottom read + BC's 2018 analog say corrective, not terminal. Invalidation · Thesis breaks if BTC loses the Feb 2026 cycle low (~$60K) into DCC's double-bottom zone ($52K, wick to $48-49K). CCDCCBL |
| AERO | hold / medium | 70▼ | med | Coinbase-Ventures-backed AERO to out-compete Uniswap on DeFi share via its Ethereum L1 move - multi-year core hold across cycles. Invalidation · Ethereum L1 migration abandoned/repeatedly delayed, or AERO loses DeFi share to Uniswap/rivals instead of gaining it. CCDCC |
| ZEC | hold / small | 59 | med | Hold ZEC across cycles as the privacy-coin play on tightening KYC/CBDC pressure into the 2030s, separate from the Jul-28 audit catalyst. Invalidation · Weekly close below $200 (loses CC's $204 box low) breaks the multi-year support structure underpinning the hold thesis. CCDCC |
| XLM | hold | 55▼ | med | XLM holds a 13-20c base with DTCC/RWA framed as 2027 fuel, but a 'gives back gains' pattern risks Oct-Nov capitulation to ~10c first. Invalidation · Invalidation is the DTCC/RWA settlement path failing to materialize, or XLM structurally breaking the ~$0.10-0.13 long base. CCDCC |
| DOGE | hold | 53 | med | Multi-year DOGE DCA hold: CC's real-tech thesis targets $0.50-$1.50 next bull market, avg sell $0.80-$0.90. Invalidation · Sustained break above $0.25 before the cycle bottom removes the cheap-entry DCA premise, breaking the thesis. CCDCC |
Not financial advice — a research synthesis of public streams. Every conviction carries its own invalidation; verify against the source episodes before acting on anything here.
⚠ AI-generated. Produced automatically from public streams;
it can contain mistakes. Verify against the original episode before acting.